My OSCAR (TM) (R) (C) Predictions

February 5, 2010

I gotta tell ya, this is pretty great.

Unless you are literally a dead person, you have likely heard of the Oscar nominations that just came out last week.  Now, if you’re anything like me, the moment the new year rolls around, you just start chomping at the bit to hear what entirely uncontroversial and borderline offensive picks “the Academy” is able to agree on in their scholarly and collegiate wisdom from their ivory tower while they aren’t busy training all their cadets.

So who’s going to win?  More importantly, who does some unemployed bearded man in Berkeley think is going to win?  That is what we’re going to solve today with my Predictions for The Oscars in Twenty Ten All Right!!  A word of warning: I saw almost none of these movies.

This year we have a whole bunch of nominees in this category for no reason other than it makes everyone feel a little better.  It’s genuinely exciting to see something like District 9 be nominated, even though I didn’t see it, and even though it has absolutely no chance of winning.  Also, Up is in this category even though it’s already nominated for Best Animated Picture and was basically half of a good movie.  I like this gesture, but I think I actually prefer the honesty of just having five The Hours-type awards-bait snoozefests to getting my hopes up with ten candidates, half of which are worth a damn.

surprise, surprise

What Will Win: Avatar, because the Oscars have always been more about commemorating movie events moreso than actually awarding good movies.

What Should Win: Probably The Hurt Locker, even though I didn’t see it and barely know what it’s about.  It could literally be about a damaged storage chest, and it would probably have a more compelling story than Space-Ferngully.

What Absolutely Should Not Win: The Blind Side, which, if there is any hope at all in the world, everyone is going to be mighty embarrassed about in a few years.  It is our generation’s Shirley Temple Teaches Some Colored Folk Left From Right.  Like, that is a joke, but that is almost exactly what the movie is.

I thought I remembered some better acting this year than we seem to be getting from this list of candidates, but maybe that’s because I keep thinking that There Will Be Blood happened this year when it in fact was, like, three years ago.  Yes, it looks like slim pickin’s this year, by which I mean that I would rather have bomb-rodeo aficionado Slim Pickens be nominated than any of these other yahoos.

Whoever this is.

Who Will Win: The guy from Hurt Locker?  Maybe?

Who Should Win: No one.  The Academy should be ashamed that it nominated so many people from movies that I haven’t seen.

Who Absolutely Shouldn’t Win: Colin Firth in A Single Man, because I will not allow any more Oscar credibility to sink into Mama Mia!, a movie that is so bad it is like…it is like just…some horrible, awful thing.  I’m out of similes today.

Supporting Actor is usually a fun category, because it’s the only thing that John C Reilly can ever get nominated for, and he is the finest actor of this or any other generation.  He was, however, tragically snubbed this year by the Academy despite his brilliant turn in The Vampire’s Assistant Plus Some Other Words (It Has a Long Title) or whatever that was called.  Philistines!

a beengo!

Who Will Win: Probably Christoph Waltz from Inglourious Basterds, even though that movie was thoroughly, thoroughly dumb whatever Sarah says.

Who Should Win: Probably Christoph Waltz from Inglourious Basterds, but that more has to do with his relatively anemic competition in this category.

Who Absolutely Should Not Win: Stanley Tucci from The Lovely Bones.  I didn’t see that movie and I know nothing about it, but he looks like a weird clown dad in all the commercials, and that strikes me as the opposite of compelling.

Not only have I seen none of these films, I actually had never heard of two of them prior to writing this.  The Last Station and An Education are probably movies about people feeling disconnected from other people and attaching themselves to romantic interests in a desperate attempt to understand their place in the universe, which sounds boring as hell, despite the amusement I receive from the fact that they rhyme when said next to each other.

I have nothing to say about Gabourey Sidibe

Who Will Win: This is maybe a sort of gamble, but I’m going with Gabourey Sidibe from Precious, because this strikes me as a very crowd-pleasing year for the Oscars, and this would very likely make the most people happy in a John Stewart Mill kind of way.

Who Should Win: Probably Gabourey Sidibe.  People said Meryl Streep was good in Julie and Julia, but c’mon, that’s a Julia Child impression for 90 minutes.  I could do a Julia Child impression for 90 minutes.

Who Absolutely Should Not Win: Sandra Bullock from The Blind Side.  I don’t understand how anyone could find this movie anything but objectionable trash.  The movie is basically Marley and Me, or Beethoven’s Second, except that the dog is an actual human being.  Satire is obsolete.

That old maxim of there being no good parts for women must be true, because these are the most boring picks I’ve ever seen for supporting actress.  Two of them are from the same movie, always a sign of this being a weak year, and one of them is from Nine, which sucked to a point where it was impressive how bad it was.

Good luck, whoever you are!

Who Will Win: Vera Farmiga, from Up in the Air.  I am basing this on literally nothing and have never heard of this person before, but I want to get out of this category as quickly as possible and she was the first person to be listed who wasn’t in Nine.

Who Should Win: Probably Mo’Nique from Precious.  She probably did a pretty good job, I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.

Who Absolutely Should Not Win: Penelope Cruz from Nine, who clucked her way through one of the stupidest performances in one of the least necessary films I’ve ever seen.  I’m being hard on musicals right now, but I actually usually like them, Nine was just a huge failure on every level.

It should be noted that this is only the third time a woman has been nominated and the second time a black person has been nominated.  Perhaps those liberal pinkos in Hollywood really do share the rest of the country’s values.


Who Will Win: James Cameron.  I really don’t think this is going to be a year for surprises, and Cameron’s been acting like he’s won already.  It sort of just seems that Movie Makes $1 Billion = Get Oscar, and this isn’t the year that something’s going to sneak in and grab it from him.

Who Should Win: I don’t necessarily like admitting it, but if nothing else Avatar was an impressive accomplishment and probably couldn’t have been done without someone as ridiculous as Cameron at the helm.  If I cared more about the Oscars, I’d be less willing to concede this, but at this point they might as well be giving out awards for Most Awesome Fight Explosion Brought To You By Outbeak Steakhouse, so I’m not gonna fight it.

Who Absolutely Shout Not Win: No one else sticks out as particularly offensive, so if I had to pick one, maybe Quentin Tarentino, because an Oscar would only encourage him.

  • The Lame Categories That No One Cares About

Animated Feature: Up. It wasn’t Pixar’s best, but it was still pretty much better than anything else.

Art Direction: Probably Avatar, riding in on the coattails of people not really being sure what art direction is.

Cinematography: I don’t know if anything in Avatar really counts as cinematography, to be honest, so let’s just say Inglourious Basterds.

Costume Design: Nine, because the Academy loves stupid period musical costumes.

Documentary Feature: Uh…the one about Burma.  Why not.

Documentary Short: Man, these all look incredibly boring.  Music By Prudence. Let’s go with that.

Film Editing: Avatar again.  I’m calling a sweep.

Foreign Language Film: Heh, more like BORE-eign Language Film.  I’ma say The White Ribbon, because I have heard of it.

Makeup: Star Trek, which I did not see, but I have heard of it.  I’ve also not really seen any of the star trek TV shows either, but I have similarly heard of them, so bonus points all around.

Music (Original Score): I don’t remember any of the music in Avatar at all, so maybe a safer bet here is Hurt Locker, which probably has some edgy, non-cat people gibberish music in it.

Music (Original Song): The T-Bone Burnett one.

Short Films (Either): I cannot muster the energy required to care about short films in any context.  Logorama and The New Tenants.  There.

Sound Editing: I think Up deserves this, so I’ll say Up, even though they’ll probably give it to Avatar.

Sound Mixing: Avatar.

Visual Effects: Man, what would they give thi–Avatar.

Adapted Screenplay: Precious.

Original Screenplay: A Serious Man.

Normally I would go into greater detail about the writing nominees, but the only movie I saw out of all of them was Up.  Man, we should have had someone who had seen anything ever do this first.

Well, those are my predictions.  Maybe we’ll get some predictions from other writers?!?  Wink Wink????!!!



  1. Penelope Cruz will win for Nine because Oscar is a cruel, cruel God. Also, the “cinematography” in Avatar is actually one of the better aspects of the movie. This is one of the few categories where I think it deserves the win. Especially over Inglorious Basterds, where I thought the cinematography was weak compared to other Tarentino movies.

    • I probably should have watched more than the last thirty minutes of Inglourious Basterds.

      Well, Max, where’s YOUR exhaustive list of predictions, Hmm?

      • Honestly, you missed nothing. My list does not exist because yours pwns.

  2. David, I am going to disagree with you on all counts because I enjoy doing that. And yes, Inglorious Basterds is stupid if you only watch the last quarter of it.

    You’re right about the T Bone Burnett song winning, though. T Bone owns.


  3. […] Nominees, Crash poster, All About Steve Poster, UP poster, James Cameron Pic, Kathryn Bigelow pic, Christoph Waltz photo, Matt Damon Invictus Poster, Christoph Waltz shot, Christopher Plummer shot, oscar statue. Music by […]

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  5. Penelope Cruz have that classic beauty look that is very attractive .

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